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Why a population cap would have backfired on Switzerland

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Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia
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Despite being a picture-perfect paradise on the outside, a potential population cap highlights the outrageous extent that Swiss politics would go to push an anti-immigration rhetoric.

To many of us, Switzerland might as well be paradise. From its regal landscapes to its powerhouse industries, the nation truly does it all. Life almost feels tranquil there, especially given its centuries long neutrality in global affairs.

Even its politics defies global norms, rejecting the notion of a single powerful leader. Instead, the nation’s system pushes the idea of compromise and power-sharing, a completely different yet ideal take on democracy. However, even the most stable system cannot escape the friction that comes with politics entirely.

At the center of its current political calamity is the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), the single largest party that pulled in nearly 28% of the national vote in the previous elections.

This party is deeply conservative, and synonymous with isolationism. We’re talking about opposing stronger ties with the European Union, stricter border control. The whole shebang.

Keeping this in mind, the SVP’s recent referendum made global waves of shock. However, before we get into it, here’s some prior context.

In 2000, the nation’s permanent resident (PR) population sat at roughly 7.2 million people. However, two years later in 2002, the Agreement on the Free Movement of Persons was signed with the EU.

This tore down bureaucratic walls and allowed EU citizens to freely live and work in Switzerland, with the nation’s booming tech, pharma, and finance sectors acting as a magnet for European skilled professionals.

It was also this agreement that caused the nation’s population to skyrocket to the 9.1 million that it is today.

Additionally, recent data shows a wide gap in those aged 65 and over, compared to those under 20, signaling a falling birth rate. But it doesn’t end there. Currently, roughly 26% to 27% of the PR population does not hold Swiss citizenship. Rather, majority of them come from European neighbors like Italy, Germany, Portugal, and France.

As a result, majority of the PR population is found squeezed amid the Swiss Plateau, where the urban hubs like Zurich and Geneva are. With space being physically limited in these areas, the rapid influx continues to push infrastructure like housing and public transportation past its limit.

To address this crisis, the SVP came up with a referendum, officially called the Sustainability Initiative, but colloquially referred to as the ‘population cap’, a clear anti-immigration measure.

The core premise of the initiative was simple: the nation’s PR population must not exceed 10 million before 2050.

Hence, the first layer of such a ceiling was the warning trigger. If the population hits 9.5 million people before 2050, the Federal Council and parliament would be constitutionally forced to freeze or drastically restrict asylum approvals and reunification permits for foreign residents.

Then comes the 10 million hard cap. Should such a number be reached, the nation would be legally required to terminate its free movement agreement with the EU, and do anything in its power to bring numbers down.

Through its proposal, the SVP argued that uncontrolled immigration via the agreements was directly degrading Swiss quality of life.

But beneath the sustainability narrative, the party was also playing into its classic anti-immigration, and even anti-Muslim playbook. In fact, the party has a long history of pushing such rhetoric like successfully pushing nationwide bans on mosque minarets and full-face covering.

By stoking fears of ‘over-foreignization’, the initiative wasn’t just about housing shortages or congested public commuters. Rather, it was a calculated move to appeal to voters through xenophobic efforts, under the guise of collapsing infrastructure and environment.

Yet, as trying as their efforts were, such a referendum would have been a double-edged sword for Switzerland.

Under Swiss-EU treaties, should the free movement agreement be terminated, it would have triggered the ‘guillotine clause’. This means that a whole domino chain of other crucial bilateral trade agreements the nation has with the EU would be immediately nullified.

Additionally, while the nation has a growing aging population, it also has booming economy that is dependent on young skilled workers. With these workers being recruited from neighboring EU countries, capping the population would effectively cripple the labor market.

As such, despite immigration being at the top of the nation’s political agenda, the public remained unwilling to pull the break on it, if it meant cutting vital economic ties with the EU.

Thus, with lingering fear of a potential Swiss Brexit, 54.79% of the votes rejected the referendum. This is fortunate, as its passage would have cast Switzerland in a much dark light.

Instead of a stable paradise, the nation would have been viewed as a highly isolationist country that willingly sabotaged its own economy, just so it could keep foreign cultures out.

Enjoyed this? Click here for more Gen Z focused change stories.

Remote Writer Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia

Hey, I’m Anyaa, a Behavioral Economist in the making who is currently doing a degree in Psychology. By nature, I’m a journalist who hopes to instigate conversations by sharing the stories and truths that make the world more comprehensible.

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