What will be the impact of India’s rice-export ban?

The latter has already taken effect in the West, where reports of panic buying and empty shelves at grocery stores have been rife.

‘I visited almost 10 plus stores,’ one member of the frenzy was quoted as saying by Asian News International. ‘I started looking for a bag of Sona Massori at 9am and it wasn’t until 4.00pm that I could finally lay my hands on a bag of rice at triple its usual price.’

According to rice traders, these regions won’t be the hardest hit, however, given that more than three billion people rely on rice as a staple.

In 2022, India shipped 22m tonnes of it to more than 140 countries.

A scene at a Costco store in California. Rice eating Indians are buying rice in bulk on hearing that India has stopped exporting non-Basmati rice. pic.twitter.com/Oj6Y3jypiG

— SURENDER MAKHIJA (Modi ka Parivaar) (@russiahouse1) July 22, 2023

Around half of those shipments were of non-basmati rice, which are cheaper and especially popular in poor places such as Bangladesh, Nepal, and parts of sub-Saharan Africa.

A reduction in the supply of those types will drive up the prices these countries pay and they’ll be compelled to reduce the quantity of food they consume, switch to non-nutritional alternatives, or cut expenses in other basic necessities like housing.

Consequently, production shortfalls could have huge implications globally on food availability, affordability, and malnutrition.

This will only be exacerbated by the breakdown of the Black Sea trade deal between Russia and Ukraine, which will help push the Horn of Africa close to famine.

‘Countries are already dealing with back-breaking food inflation, particularly poor countries,’ said Arif Husain, chief economist at the UN World Food Programme.

‘When you’re especially dependent on food imports and your debt burden is severe, your currency is depreciating and interest rates are rising. If you’re a poor country who imports your food or fertiliser, you’re in trouble.’