Heatwaves are becoming increasingly normal around the world, but not all of them are climate anomalies. Now, researchers have developed new low-cost AI system to help us understand the extent to which the climate crisis is to blame.
It’s an undeniable fact that our planet is heating up, despite London’s chilly ‘summer’ weather begging to differ.
We’re finally coming to terms with our new reality, marked by high temperatures, flooding, drought, and intense storms – but how can know for certain when these events are a direct cause of the climate crisis?
Researchers at Stanford and Colorado State University wanted to help us find out. To do so, they developed a tool using Artificial Intelligence to ascertain the correlation between extreme weather and global temperatures.
Now up and running, this rapid and low-cost machine learning system can determine how the climate crisis has contributed to extreme heat in recent years. It offers greater clarity on the conditions and causes of different weather events, while their results can help guide climate preparedness and adaptation strategies.
Once it’s more widely used, it may also may help silence climate change deniers who believe that the world is simply going through another one of its natural warming and cooling cycles.
Leading the study was Jared Trok, a Ph.D. student in Earth system science at the Stanford Doerr School of Sustainability.
Trok and his team trained AI models to predict daily maximum temperatures based on regional weather conditions and global mean temperatures.
To do this, they input a large database of climate model simulations spanning more than two centuries – from 1850 to 2100. Next, the researchers input the actual weather conditions from specific real-world heat waves.
This helped the AI tool to predict how hot the heat waves would have been if the exact same weather conditions occurred at different levels of global heating.
The researchers then compared these predictions at different global warming levels to understand how climate change has influenced the frequency and severity of historical weather events.
The results revealed that global warming made the historic heat wave 1.18 to 1.42 degrees Celsius hotter than it would have been without the warming effects of climate change.
To test their model further, they asked the tool to predict the severity of record-setting heatwaves that took place in other parts of the world. They found that the AI tool’s results were consistent with existing studies on these other weather events.
This consistent accuracy opened up a new avenue of discovery.
Researchers asked their tool to predict how intense heat waves could become with the same weather patterns that caused previous record-breaking heat waves – this time, amplified by higher levels of global warming.
They found that the worst heatwaves seen in Europe, Russia, and India over the past half-century could happen multiple times per decade if global temperatures reach 2.0 C above pre-industrial levels.
Given that that we’re already approaching warming of 1.3° C above pre-industrial levels, this should be a major wakeup call.
Why is this kind of AI tool so important?
Jared Trok explains how his team’s tool fills a necessary gap in research related to the climate crisis.
Because the AI tool is trained with real historical weather data to make its predictions, it doesn’t require the creation of expensive new climate model simulations to provide accurate results.
That’s the beauty of Artificial Intelligence: it can be trained using a breadth of already-existing data. The use of machine learning for analysis also enables predictions and results to be developed at a much faster rate compared to human-conducted analysis.
Trok and his team are now working to develop the tool further, so that it’s able to provide information about other extreme weather events in more parts of the world.
This information will be vital to help us build effective climate adaptation strategies, while improving the predictability of when extreme climate events could occur.
It’s safe to say that when it comes to information on the climate crisis, more is definitely more.
I’m Jessica (She/Her). Originally from Bermuda, I moved to London to get a Master’s degree in Media & Communications and now write for Thred to spread the word about positive social change, specifically ocean health and marine conservation. You can also find me dipping my toes into other subjects like pop culture, health, wellness, style, and beauty. Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn and drop me some ideas/feedback via email.
As many as forty people between the ages of 22 and 58 will be spending Christmas in UK prisons. This record-breaking figure is attributed to the high number of arrests at climate change protests and demonstrations related to Israel’s actions in Gaza.
This year, a record-breaking number of UK protestors will be spending Christmas behind bars.
With forty activists between the ages of 22 to 58 locked up across Britain in...
The tragic death of the UnitedHealthcare CEO has renewed attention to the downfalls of American health insurance. As Trump prepares to take on his second presidential term, concerns are raised over how his policies could affect the affordability and accessibility of health coverage.
On 4th December, Brian Thompson, CEO of UnitedHealthcare was assassinated. His death sparked intense discussions about the failures of the American healthcare system.
Following the arrest of...
The tropical cyclone Chido wreaked havoc in northern Mozambique affecting more than 180,000 people, and once again showed how climate change decimates the continent.
According to the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UN, OCHA) report, the organization confirms that the cyclone has killed at least 45 people, and the number is expected to increase.
The cyclone has left thousands of people homeless and affected the livelihoods...
On Thursday, at a courthouse in Avignon, France, Dominique Pelicot was handed 20 years in prison for aggravated rape following over a decade of drugging and abusing his ex-wife, Gisèle Pelicot, and inviting over 50 men to rape her.
Among the 50 co-defendants, 46 were convicted of rape, two of attempted rape, and two of sexual assault.
The judge handed down sentences ranging from three and 15 years, with a...
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok
0 comments
