Explaining the latest flare-up between India and Canada

Political tensions among allies

According to US Ambassador David Cohen, the dots to the recent allegations were connected with the help of intelligence gathered by the ‘Five Eyes’. This alliance is comprised of Australia, New Zealand, Canada, the United States, and the United Kingdom.

A Canadian official even confirmed the origins of the information to a major ally in the group but did not explicitly state which.

The United States, an ally of both Canada and India, is caught in the middle of this feud – the escalation of which may destabilize relations between the US and both countries, given its strong economic and security ties.

Given the US and Canada are amongst India’s biggest trade partners, there could be tariffs or other trade restrictions imposed if the situation goes awry.

On the note of security, further conflict could lead to a dysfunctional Quad – a security alliance formed by Canada, India, Japan, and the US. Increased tension among India’s diaspora communities in the US and Canada, where there is a large Sikh population, is a further possibility.

The US is apprehensive that the conflict could impair the Indo-Pacific region, where India is a key American partner. A destabilized Indo-Pacific would give China more influence in the region and could divide US allies.

US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken mentioned that he urged the Indian government to cooperate with Canada on the investigation to prevent any repercussions on an international stage.

Present developments

In response to Modi’s criticism of the protests, Trudeau responded with the right to ‘freedom of speech’ but said that he would push back on any ‘hatred’.

After the intelligence of the assassination came to light, Canada put a pause on trade treaty talks with India on September 1st. Moreover, Canada said that it would postpone a trade mission in October all in light of ‘political developments’.

In the aftermath of Trudeau’s claim, India spoke out on its ‘anti-terrorism’ policies. From politicians of opposing parties to the media, India has defiantly called out the absurdity of the allegations. The nation even went as far as to condemn Canada by calling it a ‘safe haven for terrorists’.

The Indian media has gone to lengths to portray Canada in a bad light, saying things like, it is a nation ‘of rising drug addiction and a slew of highly concerning medical policies’. Moreover, it has pivoted from talking highly of the West to calling out its hypocrisy through the involvement of countries like the US.

Experts say that Modi’s previous electoral victories were primarily due to his image as a strong leader based on how he handled conflicts with Pakistan.

They believe that this feud with Canada could similarly help him win the upcoming elections. Walter Ladwig, a professor of International Relations at King’s College London, mentioned the notion of the stand-off being ‘exploited for domestic gain’.

With opposing stances, the conflict has the potential to spiral into detrimental lengths for both nations and their allies. The only hope to prevent a major diplomatic setback is a peaceful resolution that, as of yet, is not forthcoming.