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Opinion – the earthquake magnitude scale shouldn’t be logarithmic

Full disclaimer: I’m no scientist. I’m a journalist trying to understand the logic behind measuring earthquakes logarithmically – meaning each whole number increase represents a quake that is 10x stronger – when this isn’t intuitive to the public. Shouldn’t we measure them out of 100 instead?

In the early hours of July 30, a powerful 8.8 magnitude earthquake struck Russia’s Kamchatka Kari peninsula. It caused an volcano in the region to erupt and triggered tsunami warnings for Japan, Alaska, and Hawaii, as well further away places like French Polynesia, Chile, and the US Pacific Coast.

Though coastal communities in these areas were braced for an onslaught of huge waves, evacuating their homes for higher ground, tsunami warnings had been downgraded in the region by the early afternoon.

This was certainly a relief – many of countries braced for impact have experienced enough devastation from tsunamis in recent history – but I’m sure many people were left scratching their heads and shrugging when behemoth waves failed to appear.

It prompted The New York Times to publish a piece titled, ‘Why Did Such a Powerful Earthquake Produce Such a Weak Tsunami?’ So, seriously, why?  The confusion likely has to do with the way earthquakes are measured, which is logarithmically, or rather, in measurements of ten.

In my humble non-scientific opinion, sticking to this kind of scale fails to adequately represent the difference in severity between one quake and another, making it confusing for the average layman.

Because the seismologists are unlikely to take my thoughts into consideration, come along with me to better understand how exactly the scale works and to explore the logic behind their decision.

Understanding the scale of an earthquake

The magnitude scale is used to measure and describe the energy produced by all kinds of earthquakes, from ones so small they are expressed in negative numbers to the strongest the planet has ever experienced.

Each time the number on the scale increases by a whole, it represents 10 times more shakiness in the quake and 32 times more energy released from the quake. The scale has no upper limit, though a magnitude 10 earthquake has never happened and is unlikely to.

A magnitude of 10 or higher is not possible because of basic geology. Earthquakes occur along the Earth’s fault lines, caused by the sudden movement of tectonic plates, and there is no fault line long enough to make a measurement of 10 possible.

Still some seismologists describe a 10 magnitude earthquake as so catastrophic that it would be like ‘the earth trying to – or having to – rip itself apart,’ which again, isn’t possible because of gravity and how the Earth is formed.

Observing real earthquakes as examples

To put things into perspective, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake which resulted in the tsunami that caused catastrophic damage to Indonesia, Thailand, and Sri Lanka was a magnitude 9, as was the earthquake that caused the devastating tsunami in Japan in 2011.

A magnitude 9 event possesses about 10 times as much energy as a magnitude 8.7 event, and about three times as much energy as a magnitude 8.8 event. The most recent earthquake in Russia was an 8.8 magnitude.

So while the earthquake in Russia was indeed incredibly strong, it wasn’t of the scale of ones we’ve seen in the past – even though it sounds kind of like it was.

During my research, I enjoyed reading this one Redditor’s explanation of why the logarithmic measurement is used for earthquakes:

‘There are different ways you can set up a scale. Often [you should set it up in a way that’s most] useful for the math to work. If I buy 4 bananas and you buy 8, then you have twice as many bananas as I do.

But some phenomena span an enormous range. Imagine if it was normal to sometimes buy a billionth of a banana, or 42 million bananas. The numbers would be really awkward to deal with.

Nobody wants to write 0.00000069 bananas and 314,159,265 bananas, and at some point you start to realize that the difference between 314,159,265 and 314,159,266 doesn’t really matter when the next guy might order 4 bananas.

What really matters when comparing these various banana connoisseurs is not so much the exact number, but the magnitude of the number.’

I mean, I kind of get what they’re saying here.

When earthquakes can be so severe they can rock our literal world – or so weak they’re almost undetectable to the most advanced instruments ever made – perhaps logarithmic measurement is useful.

But part of me still sort of thinks a scale of 100 might help everyday people understand the true strength difference between a 6 (let’s say 60) magnitude and a 9 (let’s say 90) magnitude quake more intuitively.

Or, we will simply have to remember that each whole number on the magnitude scale represents a quake that is 10x stronger than the number before it. It’s not so hard, once you know.

To wrap things up, it’s true to say the 8.8 magnitude earthquake that hit Russia this week was indeed massive.

It occurred along a subduction zone when one tectonic plate slid under another, resulting in the seafloor moving up and down, generating a wave that gets bigger as it moves across the ocean.

Luckily, experts say, this earthquake simply wasn’t big enough to cause the kinds of waves seen in 2004 and 2011. The waves that did reach the shore were between three and six feet high, causing flooding but no causalities.

Tsunami preparedness has also radically improved during the last two decades, with warning systems so sensitive they can alert those in potential danger to seek refuge well before they even see the natural signs of a tsunami approaching. The proof of this effectiveness lies in how quickly alerts were sent out, ensuring everyone in danger of the effects of the recent earthquake could get to safety.

So as long as the seismologists know what they’re talking about, I’ll suppose I’ll concede that we’ll be just fine sticking with the logarithmic measurement.

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