Coffee prices have been on a steady incline for the last few decades, but in 2024 the price of the world’s most popular bean variety has increased by 70 percent. What’s behind this rapid change?
Feeling scammed whenever you pay your local coffee shop £3.40 for your flat white? Well hold on, because that figure might just rise in the coming months.
New reports have revealed that prices for Arabica coffee – the world’s most popular bean variety – reached a 47-year high for Arabica coffee on the Intercontinental Exchange, Inc. (ICE). In this year alone, the price of Arabica beans rose by around 71 percent.
While you might think it’s time to switch to a different bean variety, that will be of little help to your wallet. Arabica’s rival, Robusta coffee, is also seeing record price hikes, reaching $5,694 per metric ton in late November.
To help understand just how reliant we are on these two bean varieties, consider that the U.S. International Trade Commission reported that Arabica makes up about 60-70 percent of coffee produced, while Robusta makes up about 30-40 percent.
So what’s behind the fall in production for these two very important crops?
Brazil, the world’s biggest coffee grower, saw its worst drought on record this year. The drought significantly affected crop output, making it primarily responsible for the rapid increase in price.
While investigating what could’ve caused the prolonged drought in Brazil, scientists reported that wildfires and deforestation in the Amazon rainforest were to blame.
Extensive loss of forest cover means trees cannot absorb as much rainfall and release it back into the atmosphere. Without this natural cycle occurring, further rainfall is prevented, leading to desertification of areas that were once lush and green.
Vietnam is also another key producer of Arabica beans, but in 2024, the South East Asian nation experienced its worst drought in 10 years.
The drought extended into growing season, reducing available water supplies, and weakening the harvest of coffee cherries.
It’s likely that these impacts will be felt by customers, as the cost of this loss is passed onto them. Inside roasters and at cafes around the world, prices are expected to tick up noticeably.
Nestle, for example, announced its plans to reduce the size of its coffee while boosting retail prices to offset growing costs. Basically, you’ll be paying the corporate giant a lot more, for a lot less.
Coffee is just one of the world’s coveted crops that is severely impacted by erratic weather patterns in our new, changing climate.
The crop’s plants grow best in tropical, humid environments with rich soil and temperatures ranging from around 64 degrees to 70 degrees Fahrenheit.
A recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report estimated that less rainfall and higher temperatures could reduce the amount of land capable of growing coffee in Central America to 38-89 percent by 2050.
‘Coffee is the canary in the coal mine for climate change and its effect on agriculture,’ Elizabeth Shapiro-Garza, associate professor of environmental policy and management at Duke University, told The Canadian Presse.
‘If you like your cup of coffee in the morning, climate change is absolutely going to be affecting the quality, the availability and the price of that cup of coffee.’
Reduced crop yields combined with the rising cost of a cup of joe draws attention to just how delicate the world’s agricultural commodities are.
In an altered global climate, we may have to adapt to new ways of growing the foods and drinks we know and love if they are to stay on menus of the future.
Deputy Editor & Content Partnership ManagerLondon, UK
I’m Jessica (She/Her). I’m the Deputy Editor & Content Partnership Manager at Thred. Originally from the island of Bermuda, I specialise in writing about ocean health and marine conservation, but you can also find me delving into pop culture, health and wellness, plus sustainability in the beauty and fashion industries. Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn and drop me some ideas/feedback via email.
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