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Unpacking Iran’s nuclear program amidst Israel’s strikes

Israel’s recent military strikes have once again brought global attention to Iran’s nuclear program, raising concerns about regional stability and the potential for escalation.

Israel has constantly found itself in the middle of the most heated conflicts in the Middle East. Adding to this roster is the recent strikes it initiated against Iran. Shocking the world, the first strike occurred on June 13th in a surprise offensive, code-named Operation Rising Lion.

Carried out by the Israel Defence Forces and Mossad, the attack targeted key nuclear sites, missiles, radar systems, and Iranian military leaders and scientists. As a result, civilians were also killed. What continues to follow is alternating retaliatory attacks from both sides, with an end to these blitzes nowhere in sight.

Before these strikes, the root cause of the conflict was a distant thought, overshadowed by other major global crises. As a matter of fact, this issue dates all the way back to the 50s and centres around Iran’s nuclear development program.


Iran’s nuclear program

In the 1950s, Iran had pro-Western ideology, hence, with the help of the United States, it began its nuclear development program under the premise of civilian nuclear energy uses. However, after the Islamic Revolution in 1979, Western nations stopped backing Iran due to the latter’s sudden hostility towards Western interests and values.

Years later, amidst the Iran-Iraq war, nuclear development in Iran secretly resumed, starting with a clandestine uranium enrichment program in the 80s. Within a decade, it had an overt civilian nuclear program supported by Russia and China, and a covert military operation that focused on uranium enrichment and weapons research.

As suspicions grew, many countries started to sanction Iran. By 2006, the United Nations imposed sanctions that banned the transfer of nuclear and missile technology to Iran. Laws and policies were also enacted internationally to halt Iran’s uranium enrichment and comply with international nuclear inspections.

In 2015, Iran signed a landmark agreement with the P5 + 1 – the UN Security Council’s five permanent members, plus Germany.

Named the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it was designed to curb Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for lifting many sanctions. Through the agreement, Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67%, reduce its stockpile of enriched uranium, and allow enhanced International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspections and monitoring of its facilities.

After Trump withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018 and imposed harsh sanctions, however, Iran gradually reduced compliance with the agreement.


The global fear of a nuclear-powered Iran

The fear many countries hold over a nuclear-powered Iran is both relevant and well-founded. Should such a scenario materialize, it would likely lead to one outcome: further destabilisation of an already volatile Middle East.

With nuclear weapons at its disposal, Iran could spark a regional arms race, encouraging other Middle Eastern nations to pursue their nuclear capabilities. This risk of proliferation heightens concerns about escalating conflict and long-term insecurity across the region.

The biggest concern of many, is Iran’s uranium enrichment capabilities. To produce a nuclear weapon, uranium must be enriched to at least 90%, which is the threshold for weapons-grade material. Iran’s current stockpile, enriched to 60%, is already sufficient to produce multiple nuclear weapons if further refined.

From Israel’s perspective, the stakes are existential. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has repeatedly identified a nuclear-armed Iran as a direct threat to Israel’s survival. Iranian leaders have made openly hostile statements calling for the destruction of the Israeli state.

At the same time, the nation continues to maintain strong ties with Hezbollah and Hamas – militant groups that have played central roles in conflicts with Israel. Amid the ongoing war in Gaza, Iran and these affiliated groups have escalated their antagonism toward Israel.

So yes, if Iran were to acquire nuclear weapons, it could potentially use them against Israel in a pursuit of regional dominance. But this raises an even more pressing question: what would stop Iran from transferring nuclear weapons, or the materials to create them, to its militant proxies?

Israel’s concerns extend beyond the possibility of a direct nuclear strike. It also fears that Iran and its associated militants, emboldened by the protective shield of nuclear deterrence, could act with greater aggression across the region.

While Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities may have temporarily stalled Iran’s nuclear ambitions, it ultimately triggered yet another wave of violence in a complex web of regional conflicts.

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