Joe Biden has pulled out of running for presidential re-election, with Kamala Harris expected to take his place. How might his sudden exit impact global politics, including the US’ stance on the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, as well as its relationship with China?
In a moment that it seemed like everyone had been anticipating, Joe Biden announced that he will no longer be running for president in the 2025 election.
Now, it’s expected Vice President Kamala Harris will step up to the plate. She’s received backing from Biden himself, as well as the endorsement of prominent Democrats like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. I pledge my full support to ensure her victory in November.
Now more than ever, it is crucial that our party and country swiftly unite to defeat Donald Trump and the threat to American democracy.
Though Harris’ approval ratings have been about as low as Biden’s, avoiding the uncertainty that comes with introducing a new candidate is probably the best route, with less than a month to go before the Democratic convention.
Still, even when measured against Donald Trump, public opinion surveys reveal Kamala Harris falls short – scoring roughly the same as Biden. This could well indicate that a win for Trump may be on the horizon.
It goes without saying that this run up to the presidential election has been a hot mess. What could international politics look like under a presidency led by Kamala Harris or Donald Trump in 2025?
For the most part, Biden has shown unwavering support for Israel during its 9-month war in Gaza.
Since October 7, Biden sent at least $12.5 billion in military aid to Israel, despite criticising some of Israel President Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision-making as of late.
Commenting on Biden’s exit, Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli consul general in New York said that Israel ‘has perhaps lost the last Zionist president.’ He suggested that the dynamic between the US and Israel will be upended by a new Democratic candidate.
Things could change, though, as Harris is expected to meet Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu during his visit to the US this week.
Kamala Harris’ approach to foreign policy is expected to follow largely in Biden’s footsteps, especially when it comes to Ukraine, China, and Iran. However, many expect that she could introduce stronger conditions on weapons aid to the US’ closest ally in the Middle East.
Continued US support for Ukraine is likely
Any prospective Democratic contender would be expected to uphold President Biden’s continued military backing for Ukraine.
However, pressure on the US is mounting, with frustrations growing in Ukraine and across Europe due to the slow paced delivery of aid and limitations on the supply of Western weapons to Zelensky’s army.
Kamala Harris is often seen as being relatively inexperienced when it comes to foreign policy, depending on her advisors who are ‘largely traditionalists,’ according to former Pentagon and NATO official Jim Townsend.
That said, Harris has stood in for Biden on the global stage – including at the 2023 ASEAN summit – and has had four years of direct learning experience under the president himself. Still, it’s possible that her navigation of the war in Ukraine could usher in new approaches to geopolitical challenges.
By contrast, former President Donald Trump has pledged to end Russia’s war on Ukraine within a single day should he be re-elected. This statement has sparked anxiety in Kyiv, with concerns that it could lead to Russia retaining its occupied territories.
Russia has downplayed the significance of the US electoral race, stating that regardless of the outcome, Moscow’s campaign in Ukraine will persist unabated.
Managing a shifty relationship with China
Finally, we come to the US-China relations.
In recent months, both President Biden and former President Trump have sought to demonstrate their ability to confront Beijing’s escalating military power and aggressive posture.
Both have emphasised the need to safeguard American businesses and workers from the influx of low-cost Chinese imports.
Biden has increased tariffs on electric vehicles imported from China, aiming to bolster domestic production. Meanwhile, Mr. Trump has pledged to impose a sweeping 60 percent tariff on all Chinese goods, aligning his policies with his ‘America First’ mentality, which previously heightened tensions between the two nations.
Despite this approach, conflicts with China over issues such as warfare, trade, technology, and security have persisted during Mr. Biden’s time in office. Once again, Kamala’s decision-making is expected to continue this tone, underscoring the enduring and complex nature of US-China relations.
On behalf of the American people, I thank Joe Biden for his extraordinary leadership as President of the United States and for his decades of service to our country.
I am honored to have the President’s endorsement and my intention is to earn and win this nomination.
Of course, Kamala Harris still has a mountain to climb before we can see if any of these predictions come true.
Should she win the American people over to secure her presidency, Harris would become the first woman and first woman of colour to be elected as President of the United States.
Despite many preparing for a Trump win, it’s possible that Harris could see the tide turn in her favour, should she make the right moves during her campaign.
In the meantime, we’ll be waiting on the edge of our seats for the next spanner to be thrown into the works.
I’m Jessica (She/Her). I’m the Deputy Editor & Content Partnership Manager at Thred. Originally from the island of Bermuda, I specialise in writing about ocean health and marine conservation, but you can also find me delving into pop culture, health and wellness, plus sustainability in the beauty and fashion industries. Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn and drop me some ideas/feedback via email.
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