Even with our most concerted efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, climate scientists say Arctic ice sheets could melt completely by 2030. This is far earlier than anyone had previously thought possible.
Over the last few decades, the year-round survival of large ice sheets in the Arctic has been a universal reference point for how severe global warming has become.
Many scientists believe that a complete disappearance of sea ice at any point in the year would signal an irreversible point of climate breakdown and trigger a series of dangerous global consequences, such as an unsafe rise in sea levels.
Worryingly, a new study published on Tuesday is predicting that we could expect to see Arctic sea ice completely melt by the end of the decade. Its disappearance by the year 2030 would potentially come a decade sooner than most scientists had thought possible.
Let’s unpack the study’s findings and find out why this is happening.
The surface of the Arctic Ocean freezes and melts to varying degrees as we move through the seasons each year. But over the last four decades, the far north has been warming four times faster than the global average, giving summer ice less survival time.
During winter, the amount of Arctic ice can be expected to peak in March before it begins declining during warmer summer months. The lowest levels of ice are typically present in September.
The ice that survives until September and into the next winter is called ‘multiyear sea ice.’ This ice is extremely valuable, acting as a cooling buffer that prevents moisture and heat from transferring between the ocean and the atmosphere.
As this ice hangs on through the warmest of summer days, it dramatically reduces the amount of sunlight absorbed by the ocean.
The loss of this ice would accelerate global warming through a process known as positive feedback. It would cause other vital ice sheets – like the one in Greenland – to melt at a quicker rate.
The latest study on Arctic ice has combined current climate models with satellite images, which first started being collected in 1979. Since then, ice levels during the month of September (or levels of multi-year ice) have been seen noticeably decreasing.
According to the researcher’s findings, the total amount of multiyear sea ice has shrunk from 7 million sq km down to 4 million sq km. This amount of ice loss is roughly equivalent to a landmass the size of India.
Scientists are warning that if we see a completely ice-free September before 2030, it will allow for warmer global temperatures in the north, creating a rapid knock-on effect that has consequences for all global ecosystems, including atmospheric circulation, storm patterns, and ocean activity – far sooner than anyone anticipated.
This may sound scary, but scientists commenting on the new research have offered us a dose of climate truth. Speaking to the New York Times, they remind readers that we have already been losing Arctic ice and witnessing the consequences of that for many years already.
What is to come will be the realisation of those impacts on a far worse scale.
Deputy Editor & Content Partnership ManagerLondon, UK
I’m Jessica (She/Her). I’m the Deputy Editor & Content Partnership Manager at Thred. Originally from the island of Bermuda, I specialise in writing about ocean health and marine conservation, but you can also find me delving into pop culture, health and wellness, plus sustainability in the beauty and fashion industries. Follow me on Twitter, LinkedIn and drop me some ideas/feedback via email.
Scientists recently uncovered a vast hidden groundwater system beneath Antarctica’s ice that could potentially change how we understand and predict rising sea levels.
For a long time, experts around the world hypothesised the possible existence of deep groundwater beneath the ice sheet.
However, there was no direct evidence or detailed mapping to confirm this. The Antarctic hydrological system was known to include shallow lakes, rivers, and waterlogged sediments beneath the ice,...
The European Union has proposed a new fee on billions of small parcels that are sent directly to people’s homes. This extra two-euro charge would largely affect parcels sent from China on fast-fashion platforms like Shein and Temu.
A new tax has been proposed by the European Union that would stop packages worth less than £126 from being customs-free.
Instead, an additional two-euro charge would be applied to small packages...
After a lengthy legal battle with wealthy landowner, Alexander Darwall, the right to roam, picnic, and camp in Dartmoor National Park has been reinstated by the Supreme Court.
Earlier today, the Supreme Court made the decision to fully reinstate the ‘Right to Roam’ within Dartmoor National Park. The decision comes after a two-year-long court process in which Alexander Darwall, the multi-millionaire hedge fund manager and landowner, pursued the case first...
West African nonprofits allege that major Universal Music Group stakeholder Vincent Bolloré has built his fortune through abusive practices in the region. They’re urging the label’s artists to do their research before making charitable donations.
Universal Music Group (UMG) represents some of the world’s biggest artists today, including Kendrick Lamar, his buddy Drake, Ariana Grande, Sabrina Carpenter, and Rhianna.
Many of the music corporation’s global names, past and present, have travelled...
We use cookies to ensure that we give you the best experience on our website. If you continue to use this site we will assume that you are happy with it.Ok