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Can renewables end South Africa’s ‘load shedding’ blackouts?

Despite two decades of rolling blackouts and national energy scandals, stimulation in the renewables sector might just be the turning point for Africa’s most developed economy. 

South Africa is in the throws of an energy crisis which has been unfolding for almost twenty years now.

The country’s national electricity grid, which comes predominantly from coal power stations, has been severely hindered through aging infrastructure, gross mismanagement, and continuous allegations of corruption within the ranks of the national energy supplier, ESKOM.

As early as 1998, there were warnings of problems within the infrastructure which went unheeded. Then, in 2007, the grid was unable to supply enough electricity to meet the demands of the country and for the first time ESKOM handed out a series of rolling blackouts.

These blackouts, now known as ‘load shedding’, have plagued the country ever since.

The entire economy has been severely impacted as basic services, industries, and companies essentially have to shut down for upwards of ten hours at a time on occasions. Some estimates suggest that ‘load shedding’ has cost the South African economy £11 billion since it began in 2007, with the worst bout of power cuts coming in 2022.

Despite the dire straits that South Africa’s energy infrastructure is in, recently there has been an increased emphasis on the need to transition to sustained, renewable energy sources. In this sense, some reports suggest that renewables might be the answer to the country’s energy woes whilst simultaneously transitioning the country to a more sustainable economy with a lower CO2 output.

The country has estimated that in order to transition its energy grid, it will need $84 billion in climate financing from various international sources. At COP26 in 2021, the country landed its largest deal so far, securing $6.2 billion in funding from a conglomerate of countries including the USA and the UK.

This was seen as one of the most significant deals to come out of the conference and the first major brokership of Climate Financing support to come from the COP so far.

Similarly, there are certain favourable conditions which are promoting the case for renewables in the South Africa. The private production and inclusion of solar panels has proven to remove some strain from the national grid; there has been a huge increase in the production and development of wind farm infrastructure; and new legislation has been put in place in order to allow the possibility for private generation to enter the grid.

This stimulation of the private sector has seen a surge of investment into renewables. Wind capacity has increased from 257 megawatts to 3442 megawatts in the last 10 years alone.

Despite the positive direction that renewables are seeing, many experts still believe it will be a long time before the complete phase out of coal-powered electricity. There is also concern that ‘less affordable’ renewable solutions will deepen the already vast inequalities within the country.

Similarly, the inefficiencies within the distribution and continued political upheaval within ESKOM continue to cast a broad shadow of doubt over the future of the nation.

However, there remains hope. In July of this year, the South African government signed into law a new Climate Change Bill which, among other things, looks to curb emissions significantly with goals for both 2025 and 2030.

While the country is still far away from achieving the funding and management needed to integrate an efficient level of renewable energy into its ailing grid, there could indeed be light at the end of this blacked-out tunnel.

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