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US and China agree to slash tariffs amid ongoing trade war

In talks held earlier this week in Geneva, representatives from both nations came together to reach a deal involving a 90-day window with tariff reductions.

When President Donald Trump announced a sweeping new set of major tariffs on April 2nd, global financial markets took a turn for the worse.

On this particular day, which he referred to as “Liberation Day,” he declared a national emergency based on what he described as a large US trade deficit, leading to the unveiling of the reciprocal tariffs. 57 countries felt the weight of sudden financial turmoil, which he ordered to take effect just a week later, on April 9th.

China took the tariffs most personally, with initial U.S. duties exceeding 54%, sparking outrage. This triggered weeks of escalating tariffs between the two nations. On April 4th, China imposed a 34% tariff on U.S. goods and froze TikTok sale talks.

Shortly after, U.S. tariffs jumped to 125%, prompting China to match the increase and halt rare earth exports. The U.S. then added a 20% fentanyl-related surcharge, raising tariffs to 145%. In response, China filed a WTO complaint and refused further tariff talks without mutual respect.

Such reckless action does not go without its consequences, with tariffs causing a significant reduction in trade between both countries by about 90%. Moreover, global trade saw a contraction, with the electronics and transport equipment industries being hit the most.

As a result, exports from China were redirected to other regions such as Europe, Latin America, and Canada with the closure of the US markets. Most importantly, the biggest concern of the trade war was the potential for a global recession, with high risks of job losses and supply chain disruptions worldwide.

Ultimately, this war saw $600 billion worth of bilateral trade being disrupted.

Nevertheless, all hope returned when both nations held trade talks in Geneva just earlier this week. The meeting saw engagement from senior officials from both nations, such as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and Vice Minister Li Chenggang.

After coming to terms about the detrimental impact of their conflict, both nations came to Geneva and ended up agreeing to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs. This deal involves a 90-day suspension during which the U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods will be reduced from 145% to an estimated 30%. On the other hand, China will do the same to American products, with a reduction from 125% to 10%.

This deal marks a significant reduction of tariffs by approximately 115% to promote trade and reduce tensions between the two largest economies. Both nations also agreed to establish a new consultation framework for ongoing trade and economic discussions. Doing so would allow them to maintain dialogue and address disputes through cooperation rather than confrontation.

The meeting also saw US representatives reiterating their nation’s agenda to limit the large U.S. trade deficit with China, with hopes for a more balanced trade relationship.

After the 90-day window, the future of the tariffs depends on the outcome of the discussions.

To facilitate this, both countries have appointed officials from each side to guide negotiations for continuous economic and trade talks. The ultimate goal is to reach a more comprehensive and lasting trade agreement that could potentially lead to permanent tariff reductions or removals.

When news of the tariff reduction was released, the world rejoiced, with global stock markets seeing a surge. Additionally, the U.S. dollar strengthened against major currencies like the euro and yen, reflecting increased investor confidence.

In fact, market analysts even referred to the Geneva deal as a “dream scenario”, expressing their optimism for immediate relief and a more favourable trading environment in the short term. Experts also noted that this reduces uncertainty around global trade could push the demand for shipping by companies who are preparing for future escalations.

While the financial world has been welcoming, it is also looking for more clarity on the long-term trade relationship between the two countries. This is a reasonable request, considering not only the damaging effects of their recent trade war, but also the fact that tariff cuts fail to resolve deeper issues like intellectual property rights and trade imbalances.

Until a foolproof solution is agreed upon, uncertainty is bound to linger around businesses, which might face potential supply chain disruptions and increased costs. Such companies rely on predictable trade policies to optimise their capital expenditures.

At the end of the day, no one wants the world’s largest trade partnership to go awry, as the burden always ends up falling upon the consumers.

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