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Unpacking Trump’s NATO ultimatum to end Russian militancy

Somehow, it involves China, and to make it worse, the alliance’s member states are not keen on pursuing this ultimatum.

Despite countless summits and discussions, the war in Ukraine persists.

In most instances, whether he truly helped or not, we find President Donald Trump at the centre of these negotiations. He has continually emphasized his commitment to achieving a peace agreement, rather than a ceasefire, which he sees no need for.

However, this peace agreement that Trump is pining for often includes a sweeping deal for Russia, which mainly includes Ukraine yielding territory. This has pushed Europe to advocate for a fair deal for the war-torn country, as a Russia-controlled Ukraine has implications for the European Union.

Nonetheless, the road to such agreements has not been all roses for Trump, either. With Putin’s resistance to ceasefires and increasingly maximalist demands, the negotiation process continues to slow down. Hence, Trump’s hopes of a great settlement have come to a sudden halt.

Frustrated at the current state of the war, which has only seemed more doomed, the US leader now issued an ultimatum to all NATO countries to stop buying oil from Russia and impose heavy sanctions upon it – and China.

Now, two questions may pop into your mind: ‘Why are NATO members still buying Russian oil?’ and ‘How does China fit into this?’.


The NATO-Russia oil duality

After the war began, and following Russia’s increasingly deranged movements, NATO countries, especially those that are in the EU, banned or cut their Russian oil imports. The EU even went to the extent of banning maritime imports of crude and refined oil products.

Out of the 32 NATO member states, only Hungary, Slovakia, and Turkey buy Russian oil. Now, at first glance, it may not be that bad, until you find out that Turkey is the biggest importer of Russian oil after China and India.

Since it’s not an EU member, it faces the same regulatory pressures as the union to reduce oil imports. Moreover, with the economic incentives that Russia’s oil brings into Turkey, the latter would likely not place a complete ban on oil imports. On the other hand, Hungary and Slovakia are connected to Russian crude oil via the Druzhba pipeline, which accounts for the majority of their oil consumption.

The primary motivation for Russian oil consumption from these three nations is financial; they all receive a discount, therefore, they are loyal.


Why is China involved?

Simply put, Russia and China are besties.

China is Russia’s largest trading partner, especially when it comes to energy commodities like oil and coal. The former often enjoys discounted prices when buying these and other products, such as raw materials and even military technologies.

What really ties the knot between the two is their general distaste for a Western-led international order. While China aims to rise within the system and steal the US’s perceived global leadership standing, Russia seeks to isolate itself from the West.


Trump’s strategy

Coming back to Trump’s ultimatum, he basically said that the US would impose ‘major’ sanctions on Russia, only if all NATO members agree to take similar measures, and stop buying Russian oil. He stated that the continued purchase of the commodity severely undermines the leverage and bargaining power in any negotiation with Russia.

Alongside this, he urged that member states of the alliance also collectively impose harsh tariffs on China, ranging from 50% to 100%. Due to China’s perceived ‘grip’ over Russia, Trump argued that such a move would weaken its economic backing of the latter, thereby pressuring it to end the war. Crucially, the tariffs would only be lifted after the conclusion of the conflict.

Trump further asserted that such a strategy would guarantee a quick end to the war.

Overall responses to the US’s ultimatum were a clear but quiet no. Though Brussels aimed to accelerate its plan to phase out Russian commodities, it rejected the tariff idea. At the same time, the Chinese government wasn’t thrilled to hear this new ultimatum, for obvious reasons.

A spokesperson from the nation’s Foreign Ministry called out Trump’s endeavor as a ‘typical case of unilateral bullying’.

No one yearns quite like Trump does for that Nobel Peace Prize, and now, the only thing standing in his way seems to be Putin.

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