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UN chief says humanity has missed 1.5C climate target

United Nations head Antonio Guterres says ‘devastating consequences’ are now inevitable following humanity’s failure to achieve the 1.5C terms of the Paris Agreement, in a lone interview before COP30.

Who doesn’t love an existential crisis on a Tuesday afternoon?

The world’s eyes are currently fixed on the Caribbean, as Hurricane Melissa threatens to heap unfounded levels of destruction on the region. And if UN head Antonio Guterres is correct, this could be one of many extreme weather events due to batter our planet in the coming years.

In typically forthright and no nonsense fashion, Guterres has asserted that humanity has failed in its ambition to limit global warming to 1.5C of pre-industrial levels ahead of the mid-century. In a lone interview ahead of COP30, he warned us to brace for ‘devastating consequences’.

‘Let’s recognise our failure,’ he told the Guardian. ‘The truth is that we have failed to avoid an overshooting above 1.5C in the next few years. And that going above 1.5C has devastating consequences. Some of these devastating consequences are tipping points, be it in the Amazon, be it in Greenland, or western Antarctica or the coral reefs.’

Calls to action have fallen on deaf ears countless times in recent years – especially where COP summits are concerned – but the UN chief has urged delegates attending COP30 in Belem, Brazil, to both draft and action emission reduction plans immediately. As for the original Paris Agreement, that legislation essentially rests in tatters.

Despite the last 10 years being the hottest in recorded history on Earth, calls to protect the planet’s ecology are continually lost in a race to maximise industry profits. Fewer than 30% of nations (62 of 197) have submitted their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the terms of the original 2015 treaty, and key players are failing to carry the torch.

Given Trump is continuing to push the notion that climate change is a ‘scam,’ the world’s second greatest polluter, the US, has already long abandoned the mission, while the single worst offender, China, continues to massively under commit resources. Europe, the birthplace of the 2050 accord, has continually pledged genuine action, but failed to put its words into practice.

A rough estimate is that the expected levels of carbon reductions is currently at around 10%, which is a far cry from the 60% needed to stay within 1.5C of warming. It’s still theoretically possible to avoid breaching the tipping point if countries massively overshoot their reduction plans at COP30, but all signs point to a rapidly diminishing global appetite to temper damage at all.

‘We all know what the lobbyists want,’ Guterres said. ‘It’s to increase their profits, with the price being paid by humankind.’

Guterres has hinted that COP30 will have a particular focus on indigenous peoples, as they’re viewed as custodians of the greatest natural carbon sinks on Earth:

‘Political leaders are often more concerned with the day-to-day problems of society, especially at times when the economic situation is complex and aggravated by climate change, by disasters, by catastrophes. So sometimes there is no notion of the importance of a harmonious relationship with nature and therefore it is necessary to permanently maintain a pedagogy with the political leaders, and there is no one better than the Indigenous communities to do this pedagogy,’ he said.

The lunacy of COP28 being held in Saudi Arabia is still face-palm inducing to this day, but there isn’t much optimism that the impending summit, held within a stone’s throw of the Amazon, can have any discernible impact either.

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