The 1977 climate memo that should’ve changed the world

Comparing warnings to the reality

‘Fossil fuel combustion has increased at an exponential rate over the last 100 years. As a result, the atmospheric concentration of CO2 is now 12 percent above the pre-industrial revolution level and may grow to 1.5 to 2.0 times that level within 60 years,’ it read.

‘Because of the “greenhouse effect” of atmospheric CO2 the increased concentration will induce a global climatic warming of anywhere from 0.5 to 5°C.’

These assertions built on initial evidence from a decade prior that carbon dioxide is released into the atmosphere from burning coal, oil, and natural gas. Today, obviously, this is now common knowledge, akin to the sky being blue or grass being green.

In terms of the predicted impacts, Press rightly pointed out that ‘rapid fluctuation’ in the climate would lead to unprecedented difficulties throughout big money making industries – probably for maximum impact and fear factor, in hindsight. The American dream and all that.

He highlighted wide scale crop failures as a prime example, which has proven to be the case with global warming continuing to stunt agricultural productivity in several places across the world. He also said impact assessments were of ‘unprecedented importance’ and eluded to extreme weather events in the future.

Perhaps most crucially, though, Press warned ‘the situation could grow out of control before alternate energy sources and other remedial actions become effective,’ and all but faultlessly pointed to the year 2000 as the time when the effects of climate change would become apparent.

As you read this now, with us all on the cusp of living through irreversible climate shifts, it’s easy for our generations to ask: why were these warnings not heeded?

Why did we fail to act?

Attached to the memo of Carter’s trusted confidant, was a note from America’s first secretary of energy, Jim Schlesinger. It read: ‘My view is that the policy implications of this issue are still too uncertain to warrant Presidential involvement and policy initiatives.’

Oh boy, must he have had some regrets late in life.

Seeds of doubt rapidly spread throughout the US – you could say like wildfire – and beyond, and climate change deniers were rife.

Then, there were conflicting political interests thwarting any radical shifts away from fossil fuels. For one, the US was desperate to end its dependence on foreign oil and encouraged a full scale revolution for domestic fuel.

While this was happening, Carter was counter-intuitively launching the first federal toxic waste clean-ups ever, suggesting he never fully got to grips with the severity of the situation himself.

After losing his re-election campaign, Carter’s tenure was ended by Ronald Reagan in 1981 and his successor’s attitude towards the far away rhetoric of ecological doom became immediately clear. First order of business was to rip the solar panels off the White House.

The fossil fuel industry then, in its lucrative prime, sunk millions of dollars into discrediting the validity of climate science.

All the while, legislators were more concerned with the immediate harm of sulfur dioxide and carbon monoxide poisoning than the seemingly distant threat of climate change.

If you were being kind, you’d say that Press’s memo had a stunted impact then. Despite hitting the mark with many of its proclamations, we find ourselves here, right now tittering on the edge of irreparable damage.

We’ve come full circle then, that’s the nature of regrets right?

All we can do now, is make damn sure that those with the power to enact change are wide awake and making the crucial changes needed for future generations.