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Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire deal

After more than 460 days of war, Israel and the Palestinian group Hamas have agreed to a ceasefire deal. The question on everyone’s mind is: how long will it last?

After fifteen gruelling months of war, the day has finally arrived. Israel and Hamas have reportedly agreed on a ceasefire deal, according to reports from US and Qatari leaders.

The long-awaited decision comes after a series of drawn-out talks between representatives of Hamas and Israel. But of course, Donald Trump claimed the win as one of his own.

Back in December, Trump said there would be ‘all hell to pay’ in the Middle East if the remaining Israeli hostages held in Gaza were not set free before he entered office.

While details of the current deal are still unclear, it is believed that it would see attacks on Gaza halted, a mutual exchange of hostages and prisoners, the withdrawal of Israeli troops, and return of displaced Palestinians.

The ceasefire offers hope for Gazans, who can now begin dreaming of a future, of rebuilding their homes. But the question on everybody’s mind is: how long will it last? In fact, will it even be enforced?

Israel’s PM Benjamin Netanyahu delayed his cabinet from meeting to vote on the ceasefire. He also accused Hamas of backtracking on parts of the deal.

Nevertheless, it seems global powers are ‘confident’ ceasefire deals can be resolved by Sunday, and continue to press for peace negotiations to stick.

Let’s explore what happens next.

How will the ceasefire work?

According to plans outlined by President Joe Biden, the ceasefire is expected to happen in three stages.

The first stage would last six weeks, with a portion of hostages in Gaza and a number of Palestinian prisoners in Israel freed. Gazans who have been displaced would be allowed to start returning home.

A full and complete ceasefire would be held throughout these six weeks. A surge in aid deliveries to Gaza is also expected, with at least 100 aid trucks entering the enclave each day.

Once this phase accomplished, the second stage would lead to a more ‘permanent end to the war,’ as per Biden’s statements.

The second stage would see all remaining Israeli hostages released in return for more Palestinian prisoners. It is believed that 98 hostages remain in Gaza, but it is unclear how many are still alive.

All Israeli troops in Gaza would be withdrawn at this stage, too.

Finally, the third stage would involve reconstructing Gaza. Schools, hospitals, houses, offices and businesses have been destroyed, making this a mammoth task, one that could take more than a decade.

As the dust settles

A chance to rebuild and begin the journey of healing is a major win for Palestinians, who have endured unimaginable suffering as a result of Israel’s multi-faceted war. They have faced relentless bombing, starvation, and blocking of aid and medical supplies.

It is estimated that 46,000 – 200,000 people in Gaza have been killed by Israeli forces over the past fifteen months, making this war the most dangerous in the history of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

In comparison, Israel has not suffered as many tangible losses. The country and its leaders will, however, have to navigate the tremendous self-inflicted damage they have caused to the country’s reputation.

Benjamin Netanyahu has already been indicted on war crime charges by the International Criminal Court, placing him in the company of Vladimir Putin.

Like the Russian dictator, Netanyahu is going to have trouble travelling internationally, as a growing list of nations have agreed to arrest him should he set foot on their soil.

Opinions about Israel as a country have grown hostile. Over the last year, it’s become clear that young people, including those based in the US, have lost their unwavering support for the country.

A Pew survey in April found that one third of adults under 30 said their sympathies lay either entirely or mostly with the Palestinian people, compared with 14 percent who held support for Israel.

As the ceasefire agreement slowly comes to fruition, each step will be taken with huge caution. Experts warn any peace is likely to be extremely fragile, with fresh outbursts of conflict capable of happening at any time.

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