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Is the UK on the brink of a full-scale food crisis?

Experts believe a weakened food security system has left Britain vulnerable to riots and unrest. 

Britain has never been self-sufficient when it comes to food. It’s a tiny island that – until immigration and colonisation brought the gift of global cuisine – survived mostly on bread and potatoes.

But thanks to modern trading systems, food security isn’t something we tend to worry about in the UK. We have fancy supermarkets and expansive restaurant scenes. Cities like London are considered food capitals of the world. M&S has a vice-like grip on international tastes thanks to social media and a particularly creative product development team.

Yet our cushy relationship with the food cupboard could be on the brink of disaster, according to experts. Thanks to chronic issues like the climate crisis, low incomes, poor farming policy and fragile supply-chains, Britain’s food system has become a ‘tinderbox’, one which sits just one crisis away from full-scale collapse.

The country’s top food experts suggest a severe weather incident or cyber attack could spark social unrest or even food riots. Given the vulnerable state of the UK’s food systems, a major incident has the potential to push up food prices, sparking social tension and – in a worst case scenario – widespread civil unrest.

80% of experts say large-scale violence caused by a food crisis was possible in Britain in the next 50 years, with 40% saying it could occur within the next decade. This prediction was based on a scenario in which more than 30,000 people could suffer violent injury owing to food protests or riots.

M&S, one of the biggest food retailers in the UK, was hit by a debilitating cyber attack late last year. This threatened supply chains and internal data, leading to price hikes and product shortages. If the same thing happened to multiple companies, experts warn sudden price hikes could throw the entire nation into disarray.

The study, published in Sustainability, argues that long-standing structural issues are leaving the UK dangerously exposed to threats that – in our digital age – are becoming more prevalent.

Rising prices would disproportionately impact low-income households, restricting access to nutritious foods and heightening food insecurity.

‘While there is a growing awareness of the potential risks,’ says Professor Sarah Bridle, Chair of Food, Climate and Society at the University of York, ‘not enough coordinated work is being done to address the weak spots in the system, and how people are likely to be affected.’

‘The stability of the UK’s food system is a critical aspect of national security. While we can’t always prevent future shocks, we can build resilience to withstand them, and stop a bad situation from becoming a crisis.’

Dominic Watters, a researcher into the UKs food systems, has outlined how the maintenance of these systems is inherently a social and political issue. ‘Food crises and civil unrest don’t come from lack of calories alone; they come from lack of dignity, voice and care. This research highlights how the stigma and dehumanisation of food insecurity are already creating cracks in our society.’

The UK has faced food price hikes before, notable in 2008 when the price of wheat jumped by a staggering 130%, and again during the Covid-19 crisis. Few experts believe British food will ever return to its pre-2008 lows.

Pressures on the UK’s food security are here to stay. Thanks to a growing global population and changing consumption patterns, there’s an increasing demand for food stuffs and upwards price trends. Add to this the threat of climate crisis, animal-borne diseases, and international unrest, and you’re looking at a crucible of systemic collapse.

Now that the US government is implementing tariffs on UK products, along with 90 other countries like Canada and China, inflationary food prices are persevering.

Britain has often responded to vulnerability with bravado, whether through empire, politics or rhetoric. But food security is less forgiving. It won’t be solved by a puffed-chest, red-faced approach to immigration – and it won’t be insulated by nostalgic navel-gazing.

If the cracks in the food system aren’t acknowledged soon enough, the consequences will be felt far beyond the shelves of the supermarket.

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