Menu Menu
[gtranslate]

Is Iran about to disrupt the global oil and gas industry?

With tensions in the Middle East reaching boiling point, Iran intends to escalate the situation globally by taking steps to shut down the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime point for oil trade.

Just days ago, the United States decided to dip its feet into the currently disordered Middle East by organising strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities. Their aim, similar to that of their ally, Israel, was to delay the development of Iran’s nuclear program.

These strikes follow over a week of escalating conflict between Israel and Iran over the latter’s nuclear capabilities, which has garnered international concerns over the past few decades.

In response to the US strikes, Iran started to take efforts to close the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global choke point for oil exports.


What is the Strait of Hormuz?

The strait lies between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, extending out to the open ocean. As such, it is the primary export route for oil and gas-rich nations like Saudi Arabia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates. Additionally, 20% of the world’s oil consumption passes through this key region.

Most of the shipping lanes in the strait run through Oman’s territorial waters. However, some parts of it are within Iran’s territory, particularly the northern side. Hence, the nation has established a significant military presence within its share of the region, comprising naval vessels, anti-ship missiles, and fast-attack boats. All of these assets are to ensure that Iran has maximum power to exert control and its influence over the maritime point.


Closing the strait

Following US attacks on its nuclear facilities, the Iranian parliament endorsed the motion to close its part of the strait. Their rationale was that such a move would ‘punish the enemy’, thereby escalating pressure on the US and its allies. However, the strait has not been closed yet, as the final decision to do so lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader.

Currently, the US has less direct dependence on energy resources from Gulf nations. It still has a strong interest in ensuring the free flow of these resources to global markets. This is crucial for maintaining stability in the global economy. As a result, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio urged China to pressure Iran against closing the Strait of Hormuz. Rubio specifically appealed to China for assistance because of its strong ties with Iran, being one of the largest purchasers of Iranian oil and a key ally.

After the US appealed, the Eastern nation criticised American involvement in the conflict. It went on to stress the importance of reaching a ceasefire and avoiding any potential harm to the global economy.


Global implications of a closure

All things considered, closing the strait would be a major UNO reverse card by Iran, triggering a ripple effect throughout the global oil and gas industry. Amidst existing tensions in the regions, oil prices have already shown sensitivity.

In the wake of the recent strikes, Brent Crude, the global standard for oil pricing, experienced a swift increase of 5.7%. According to Goldman Sachs, should oil shipments through the strait reduce by 50% for a month and persist at that level for 11 months, the average oil price might soar to $110 per barrel.

There are no alternative maritime routes for the majority of the oil that flows through the strait. While some pipelines are operational in Saudi Arabia and the UAE, their capacity is significantly lower than the 20 million barrels that typically pass through Hormuz.

With that, Asia would face the greatest risk because of its significant dependence on oil from the Gulf. Notably, China represents 38% of the crude oil that passes through, importing about 90% of Iran’s oil exports. This situation would lead to shortages not only across the continent but also globally, intensifying inflation and economic uncertainty.

The consequences are twofold, as Gulf nations that export oil would also suffer significantly. These countries have traditionally depended on oil exports to enhance their GDP, meaning a vital income stream would be cut off.

Given that Iran’s oil and gas revenue constitutes approximately 24.7% of its economy, shutting down the Strait of Hormuz would essentially be self-destructive. While this action would undoubtedly jeopardize global energy security, it seems that decisions are currently being driven by emotions rather than rational thought.

With global interests in mind, one can only hope that all parties involved in the conflict return to logical reasoning in their decision-making process.

Accessibility