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Why one third of Tuvalu’s population hopes to relocate to Australia

An unprecedented visa scheme between Tuvalu and Australia is garnering a huge response. Signed in 2023, the ‘neighbourly’ agreement allows Tuvaluans to live, work, and study in Australia – though most are moving against their will.

Three years ago at the world’s largest annual climate meeting COP27, Tuvalu’s foreign minister Simon Kofe announced that the country was making moves to preserve its culture in the metaverse.

Standing behind a podium on the beach, Kofe was knee-deep in seawater that, in previous years, hadn’t lapped so far up the shoreline. It was stark reminder that, for some, the threat of climate change isn’t theoretical or abstract. It is evident right now.

Recognising the vulnerability of Tuvalu’s small population of around 11,000 people, officials from Australia and Tuvalu signed an agreement called the Falepili Union. It provides Tuvaluans the opportunity to live, work, and study in Australia.

The aim is to provide a safe haven for the Pacific islanders, as sea levels rise and encroach rapidly on their home. Successful applicants will have access to Australian education, health, and key income and family support on arrival.

On the 16th of June, a ballot for these visas opened. More than 1,120 primary registrations were received by Australia’s Department of Home Affairs, accounting for 4,052 people once family members of the primary applicant are included.

The problem is, only 280 visas are set to be granted by the Australian government each year.

James Ellsmoor, CEO of an agency focused on sustainable development for small island states called Island Innovation, said the response was ‘not surprising’.

Ellsmoor acknowledged that the current application rates suggest that vast majority of Tuvalans hope to seek safe haven elsewhere, but said that the small number of visas would ‘limit a mass migration event’.

The high response rate to emigration visa is driven by both climate change and the local economy in Tuvalu. The island has the world’s smallest economy, with its GDP sitting at $63 million in 2023, according figures from the World Bank.

Like many nations in the Global South, the economic productivity and culture of Tuvalu is inextricably linked with the land and sea in which they live. Unemployment is high, with most its economy upheld by fisheries and international grants.

While leaving seems unthinkable for most people in Tuvalu, staying on the island in the long-term future has become unfeasible. The changing landscape makes living and working in the three key sectors of farming, fishing, and tourism a risky business.

Storms, dwindling freshwater systems, and dying coral reefs also threaten the livelihood of Tuvalans. And although the Australian government was praised for its ‘neighbourliness’ in agreeing to grant visas for Tuvaluan islanders, James Ellsmoor sees its necessity as a sign of failure.

‘We are actively failing Tuvalu, we are actively failing island communities,’ he said. ‘The Pathway, while an impressive show of bilateral policymaking and international solidarity, is a deeply saddening reality. We are talking about an entire sovereign nation and its citizens at risk of losing their physical communities and cultural heritage, through no fault of their own.’

For Tuvalans – and other low-lying island nations around the world – the threat of climate change is not an existential one. It’s one that manifests in consequences which are becoming impossible to ignore, presenting local people with a dire situation: leave everything you know behind… or risk your life.

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