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Is cloud seeding to blame for the Dubai floods?

Last week, approximately 25cm of rain – roughly twice the UAE’s yearly average – fell in a single day, leaving much of the city’s outdoor infrastructure under water. This has sparked a debate about weather modification.

In parts of the Northern Hemisphere, April is known as the month of showers.

This is due to the spring shift in weather patterns and is great for plant growth, particularly at a time when global temperatures are rising and our summers are far longer, hotter and drier than ever before.

In the notoriously arid United Arab Emirates, however, April showers aren’t all that common.

In fact, the country sees just 100mm of rainfall per year, which is why last week’s freak downpour – the most extreme of such an event since records began in 1949 – has meteorologists so concerned.

Over an unprecedented 48 hours, the skies over the UAE darkened and torrential storms washed away the capital city’s picture-perfect image. Approximately 25cm of rain fell in a single day, leaving much of Dubai’s outdoor infrastructure under water.

Highways turned to rivers as drivers were forced to abandon their vehicles, homes and businesses were damaged, and one of the world’s busiest airports was significantly disrupted.

Twenty people are also reported to have been killed in the neighbouring country of Oman and the recovery is anticipated to be slow as, given Dubai is in the middle of a desert, many of its heavily urbanised areas have scarce green space to absorb the moisture and little to no drainage facilities (which is why the city was so overwhelmed by runoff in the first place).

‘It was like the apocalypse,’ a British expat living there told the BBC. ‘It felt like midnight in the middle of the afternoon.’

In dramatic footage of the floods, residents were seen jet-skiing through streets, planes were forced to land in what looked like an ocean, and cars were swept up by the deluge.

According to forecasters, the chaos was caused by a cluster of four large storms, each of them towering 15 kilometres into the atmosphere and fuelled by powerful jet streams, rolling into the UAE one after another.

On social media, users have been speculating if the country’s longstanding cloud seeding programme is to blame for this and a debate has been sparked among scientists about weather modification.

Cloud seeding, or ‘pluviculture,’ is a practice employed in countries with low rainfall, like the UAE.

To artificially stimulate downpours, small government-operated aircrafts fly through clouds and burn special salt flares that encourage small rain droplets to stick together. Once heavy enough these larger droplets will then fall to Earth as rain.

Pluviculture can’t create water from a clear sky, however. Particles must be shot into a storm cloud that already holds moisture to get it to fall, or to fall more than it otherwise would naturally.

As for whether or not this played a role in the flooding, experts have been quick to dismiss such claims, saying that at best it would have had a minor effect on the storm.

‘Even if cloud seeding did encourage clouds around Dubai to drop water, the atmosphere would have likely been carrying more water to form clouds in the first place, because of climate change,’ explains Dr Friederike Otto, a senior lecturer in climate science at Imperial College London.

‘When such intense and large scale systems are forecasted, which they were, cloud seeding – which is a costly process – is not performed because there is no need to seed such strong systems of regional scale.’

In other words, the impacts were much more catastrophic than would be expected from cloud seeding alone, but this does not discredit that it remains unknown how far the repercussions of tampering with the Earth’s natural processes could go.

Clearly, playing God has its consequences.

Cloud seeding may not have directly catalysed the event, but there’s definitely something to be said for what happens when we intervene with the natural flow of things, as we’ve been doing for centuries and as is evidenced by the human-induced climate crisis.

As Otto alludes to, climate change in general is responsible for more intense and more frequent storms, droughts, floods, and wildfires around the world – and is likely the cause of the UAE’s flooding.

‘The intensity of the rain was record breaking, but this is consistent with a warming climate, with more moisture available to fuel storms and make heavy rainfall events and associated flooding progressively more potent,’ she adds.

‘If humans continue to burn oil, gas and coal, the climate will continue to warm, rainfall will continue to get heavier, and people will continue to lose their lives in floods. When we talk about heavy rainfall, we need to talk about climate change. Focusing on cloud seeding is misleading.’

Of course, preventing heavy rainfall from turning into deadly floods requires robust defences to deal with sudden intense downpours.

And if Dubai – the capital city of the seventh richest country in the world – lacks the resources, strategies, and adaptation measures necessary to cope, it calls to attention how urgently vulnerable nations (those on the frontlines) should be given access to the Loss and Damage fund they’ve been promised as aid.

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